基于STIRPAT改进模型的河南省公路运输发展影响碳排放强度统计效应分析
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摘要：
高效的公路交通运输体系是实现河南省物流低碳化和可持续发展的关键.除考虑人口规模和人均GDP因素外,引入等级公路线路里程、民用车辆拥有量、货客运总周转量等公路发展主要因素,结合改进的STIRPAT模型,通过构建面板数据矩阵,并采用个体随机效应模型分析2006-2016年河南省公路发展因素对区域碳排放强度的影响.结果发现,近十年河南省等级以上公路线路里程和货客运总周转量对本区域碳排放强度有正向影响效应,而人口数量、人均GDP和民用车辆拥有量对本区域的碳排放强度有负向影响效应;其中,人均GDP是影响效应最为显著的因素,货客运总周转量是推高区域碳排放强度效应最为显著的因素.
An efficient highway transport pattern plays a key role for low-carbon logistics system and Economics of Sustainable Development in Henan province.STIRPAT model used in this study has been improved with data logarithm and standardized,and with three new independent variables of Length of Expressways and Highways （LEH）, Possession of Civil Vehicles （PCV）, Ton-miles of Passenger and Freight （TPF）.Moreover, The total Number of Population （TNP） and Per Capita GDP （PCG） are also the independent variables of STIRPAT model.A random-effect model has been applied for studying the impact on carbon emission intensity by highway development parameters.Also a panel data matrix is used to analyze datum of the above variables during the period of 2006 to 2016 in 18 cities of Henan province. The result shows that the variables of LEH and TPF played the opposite effects on carbon emission intensity of Henan during the period of 2006 to 2016. However, TNP, PCG, and PCV played the negative roles. In addition, the variable of PCG was the most significant negative influence factor on carbon emission intensity in all studied variables,while TPF contributed to the increasing of carbon emission intensity significantly during the studied period in Henan province.
作者：
魏冉
Wei Ran(Department of Economics and Management;Systems and Industrial Engineering Technology Research Center,Zhongyuan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450007,China)
机构地区：
中原工学院经济管理学院 中原工学院系统与工业工程技术研究中心
出处：
《Betway官方客服学报：自然科学版》 CAS 北大核心 2018年第6期16-21,67,共7页
基金：
国家自然科学基金项目(71273021 81450022) 河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划项目(2015GGJS-194) 河南省软科学研究计划项目(182400410198) 河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2018BJJ065)
关键词：
STIRPAT改进模型 统计效应 面板数据 碳排放强度 公路运输
improved STIRPAT model statistic effects panel data carbon emission intensity transport of highways
分类号：
X24 [环境科学与工程—环境科学]
基于STIRPAT改进模型的河南省公路运输发展影响碳排放强度统计效应分析.pdf